Warren Buffett ziet potentie in ASML: koopje of niet?

2025-06-09 technologie

Veldhoven, maandag, 9 juni 2025.
ASML, cruciaal voor de halfgeleiderindustrie en de Brainport regio, staat in de schijnwerpers na een fundamentele analyse gebaseerd op Warren Buffett’s strategieën. Validea’s analyse onthult een sterke technische positie, met een MACD van 13.22 en een RSI van 59.59. Scoort ASML hoog genoeg om Buffett te overtuigen? Ontdek of deze analyse de beursgoeroe’s interesse wekt en wat dit betekent voor beleggers.

Buffett’s Patient Investor Model

Validea’s guru fundamental report for ASML Holding NV (ADR) reveals that the stock scores highly using their Patient Investor model, a strategy based on the principles of Warren Buffett [1]. This model focuses on identifying companies with consistent and predictable long-term profitability [1]. A score of 80% or higher suggests the strategy has some interest in the stock, while a score above 90% indicates strong interest [1]. The rating is entirely based on ASML’s underlying fundamentals and its stock valuation [1].

Technical indicators point to ‘buy’

Technical analysis of ASML Holding indicates a ‘strong buy’ sentiment [2]. ASML Holding’s Moving Averages Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator reads 13.22, signaling a ‘buy’ [2]. Several moving averages further support this assessment [2][3]. ASML Holding’s 10-day exponential moving average is €745.68, while the share price is $753.02, also indicating a ‘buy’ [2]. The 50-day exponential moving average is €717.70, reinforcing the ‘buy’ signal [2]. The 200-day simple moving average is €730.31, again suggesting a ‘buy’ [2].

Mixed signals from other indicators

While many indicators point towards a buying opportunity, some offer a more neutral outlook [2]. ASML Holding’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is 59.59, which creates a neutral signal [2]. Similarly, the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) registers at 80.57, also generating a neutral signal [2]. Financhill.com notes that the current trend is considered strongly bullish based on the share price being above its 5, 20 & 50 day exponential moving averages [3]. However, they also point out ASML is experiencing selling pressure, which indicates risk of future bearish movement [3].

ASML’s recent performance and outlook

Despite positive technical indicators, ASML recently reported a lower-than-expected order intake for the third quarter [7]. This caused ASML shares to fall over 15% on the Dutch stock exchange [7]. ASML’s CFO, Christophe Fouquet, stated that while there is strong development and upside potential within AI, other market segments are taking longer to recover [7]. The company now expects a more gradual market recovery in 2025, leading customers to act cautiously [7]. ASML anticipates full-year 2024 sales to be around €28 billion, increasing to €30-35 billion in 2025 [7].

Euronext and ASML

ASML is traded on Euronext Amsterdam [5]. Euronext is a leading pan-European exchange with nearly 1,800 listed issuers and a market capitalization of around €6.3 trillion as of the end of March 2025 [8]. Key national indices include the AEX, BEL 20, and CAC 40 [8]. To invest in ASML or other stocks on Euronext, investors need to place orders through broker firms that are members of the Euronext Cash Markets [8].

Bronnen

Aandelenmarkt ASML analyse